A brutal and catastrophic warming could put humanity in short-term risk, a climate hypothesis that was first presented as highly speculative and subject to more science fiction than a serious prospective, before taking consistency by the scientists from the Rio Summit, and the difficulties of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. This possibility is beginning to be considered by the futurists, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under the aegis of the UN, then a university report synthesis and evaluation that a large and abrupt changes may jeopardize all or part of humanity, biodiversity or societies and ecosystems to adapt capacities. The large press is gradually echoed, referring to the international climate negotiations “more difficult than on nuclear disarmament” and risking “the future of humanity”.
Tens of thousands of deaths are attributed to heat waves. Floods are expected to increase. The Arctic is warming faster than other European regions, resulting in a doubling of melting of the Greenland ice cap. The sea has risen, with local isostatic variations. Impacts are expected on the flora (flowering, tree diseases…, but also on wildlife: zoonoses, range change) and diseases (ticks, some mosquitoes and sandflies go back further north and at altitude). The pollen season is longer. The plankton is changing and – outside marine environments – the migration/adaptation speed of many species is insufficient compared to the speed of biological and geoclimatic disturbances, which aggravates the risk of extinction. Agricultural yields are expected to decrease to the south and perhaps increase to the north.
The reality of risk and the phenomenon is now almost consensus. Faced with the problem, three approaches complement each other: fight against greenhouse gas emissions, carbon sinks, and adaptation.
CONTENTS
Climate change
– Climatic variations
– – Historical record
– – Old variations
– – Recent global warming
– – Drought and desertification
– Factors
– – Astronomical causes
– – – Interstellar dust clouds
– – Movements of continents near the poles
– – Volcanic crisis
– – Retro-action
– – – Variation of albedo
– – Consequences to humanity
– – – Nuclear winter
– Abrupt climate change
– – Issues and state of knowledge at the beginning of the XXI century
– – The problems posed by an abrupt climate change
– – Possible causes of abrupt climate change
– – – In the past
– – Prospective of short and medium term
– – Self-sustained and accelerated changes in the polar albedo
– – The role of the thermohaline circulation
Global warming
– Observations
– – Temperature evolution
– – Rainfall
– – Melting of sea ice
– – – In the Arctic
– – – In Antarctica
– – Polar ice caps
– – Permafrost thaw
– – Retreat of mountain glaciers
– – Geophysical and seismic effects
– – Effects on agricultural practices
– – Effects on fauna, flora, fungi and biodiversity
– – – Range changes
– – – Physiological changes of organisms
– – – Extinctions of species, disappearance of habitats
– – – Prospective issues and management of natural heritage
– – Tropical cyclones
– – Ocean warming and sea level rise
– – Ocean acidification
– Perspectives: Past evolution of temperatures and consequences
– – Climatic cycles
– – Amplitudes of climatic variations
– – Historical times
– Causes
– – Hypothesis of an additional greenhouse effect
– – Most likely cause
– – – Scientific method: modeling
– – – – Tested hypotheses
– – – – Results
– – – Scientific consensus
– – Other minor causes of global warming
– Projections
– – Climate models
– – Continuing global warming
– Expected environmental consequences
– – Rising waters
– – Precipitation and lightning
– – Degradation of air quality
– – Thermohaline circulation
– – – Stop of the thermohaline circulation
– – Ice and snow cover
– – Decline of ocean biomass
– – Abrupt or irreversible consequences, and prospective
– – Very long-term phenomena
– – Feedbacks
– – Consequences of global warming on man and the biosphere
– – – Negative consequences for humanity
– – – Positive consequences for humanity
– Human consequences of global warming
– – Impact on coastal regions
– – Fisheries
– – Agriculture
– – Forest, forestry, agroforestry
– – Access to the Arctic Ocean
– – Economy
– – Health
– – Global geopolitical destabilization
– – – Increased risks of war
– – – Interstate conflicts
– – – Interactions with the 2008-2009 crisis
– Responses from states, communities, businesses, citizens in the face of the climate threat
– – Kyoto Protocol
– – European Union
– – Joint commitments of the United States and China in 2014
– – Paris Climate Agreement 2015
– – 2016 Global Agreement for the elimination of hydrofluorocarbons
– Scientific research on climate change
– – Synthesis reports
– – – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014
– – – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
– – Academies and scientific societies
– – Systematic reviews and opinion polls among scientists
– – – John Cook et al. (2013)
– – – Anderegg, Prall, Harold, and Schneider (2010)
– – – Peter Doran and Maggie Zimmerman (2009)
– – – Bray and von Storch (2008)
– – – Naomi Oreskes (2004)
– Global dimming
– – Causes and effects
– – Effects on health and the environment
– Planetary boundaries
– – Initial definition 2009
– – Consideration by the United Nations
– – Update 2015
– Adaptation to global warming
– – Defining elements
– – – General definitions
– – – European definitions
Reference
About the author
– Nicolae Sfetcu
– – Contact
– Other book
Publishing House
– MultiMedia Publishing
MultiMedia Publishing: https://www.telework.ro/en/e-books/climate-change-global-warming/ , https://www.cartilibrarie.com/carte/climate-change-global-warming/
– e-Book: EPUB (ISBN 978-606-94668-9-6), Kindle (ISBN 978-606-9016-01-5), PDF (ISBN 978-606-9016-00-8)
– Print book (Format A5, 210 x 148 x 8 mm, 170 g, 136 pagini) ISBN 978-606-94668-8-9
Date: 29.08.2018
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