Gold powers to fresh records as 2025 rally accelerates

Gold prices surged to new all-time highs on Monday, extending a year-long bull run that has been driven by expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, a softer dollar and persistent demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold was up about 1.7% at $4,411/oz in morning trade after hitting a record $4,420/oz earlier in the session, according to Reuters. U.S. gold futures also pushed higher, trading around $4,444/oz.

The move caps a remarkable 2025 for bullion: gold has gained around 67% year-to-date, smashing through the psychological $3,000 and $4,000 levels for the first time and repeatedly setting new peaks.

The World Gold Council (WGC) has described 2025 as a historic run, noting gold notched 50+ all-time highs and returned 60%+ by late November, underpinned by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, dollar weakness and momentum-led buying.

Markets have increasingly priced in a lower-rate environment ahead. Reuters noted that traders are factoring in two U.S. rate cuts in 2026, a backdrop that tends to favor gold because it doesn’t pay interest.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar’s softness has provided a mechanical boost—making gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers—while geopolitical and trade tensions have reinforced demand for “insurance” assets.

Recent data suggest the rally has been powered less by jewelry and more by investors and official institutions:

• Total gold demand (including OTC) hit 1,313 tonnes in Q3 2025, the highest quarterly total in WGC’s series.
• ETF buying surged (+222 tonnes) in the quarter, alongside strong bar and coin demand.
• Central bank buying remained elevated (220 tonnes in Q3), with 634 tonnes added year-to-date through Q3 (reported + estimated).

A World Bank analysis also pointed to stronger 2025 demand overall—helped by investment inflows and continued (though moderating) central-bank purchases.

Real-time quotes showed spot gold around $4,413/oz with an intraday range roughly $4,339–$4,420.
Over the past month, gold is up roughly 6–7%, and close to ~69% higher than a year ago, according to Trading Economics.

With year-end liquidity thinning, analysts have warned that sharp swings—either profit-taking or momentum-chasing—could become more likely. Reuters highlighted the risk of profit-taking as trading volumes fade into the holidays.

Key catalysts into early 2026 will likely include: U.S. rate expectations, the dollar’s direction, geopolitical headlines, and whether ETF/central-bank demand stays as strong as it has been through 2025.