Black Friday dawned across the United States with packed parking lots, refreshed shopping apps and a wary but determined consumer, as retailers launched one of the most important days of their year against a backdrop of higher prices and economic uncertainty.
Industry groups expect more people to shop this Thanksgiving-to-Cyber-Monday stretch than ever before, even as many plan to spend a little less per person. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts roughly 186.9 million people will shop in stores or online over the five-day period, topping last year’s record.
A separate survey by real estate and retail group ICSC suggests those shoppers could spend about $127 billion between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, with nearly nine in ten U.S. adults planning to buy something over the long weekend.
Despite the record traffic, households are signaling that their budgets are under strain. Research from Deloitte indicates Americans plan to spend an average of $622 over the Black Friday–Cyber Monday period, a drop of just over 4% from 2024 and the first expected decline in several years.
Economic anxieties—from elevated living costs to new tariffs and an uncertain job market—are shaping buying decisions, with analysts warning that many families are trading down, delaying big-ticket purchases or hunting aggressively for promotions.
“More people are out shopping, but they’re stretching every dollar,” said one retail economist, summarizing surveys that show consumers focused on essentials, discounts and practical gifts rather than splurges.
In the digital aisles, early numbers suggest another strong year. Salesforce estimates that online sales on Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. will rise about 6% year-over-year to roughly $8.6 billion, with Black Friday itself projected to reach around $18 billion in online spending and the five-day “cyber week” as much as $78 billion globally.
Even so, Black Friday remains the single busiest in-store shopping day of the year. Traffic analytics firm Sensormatic and NRF both expect today to be the most heavily trafficked day of the 2025 retail calendar, as shoppers line up for doorbusters and same-day pickup orders.
Big-box chains like Walmart, Target, Best Buy and Home Depot opened early Friday rather than overnight, reflecting a post-pandemic shift away from chaotic midnight doorbusters toward more controlled morning openings and weeks-long online promotions.
If Black Friday once meant a single day of steep markdowns, 2025’s version looks more like the climax of a month-long sales marathon. Many major retailers rolled out “Early Black Friday” deals in the first half of November and kept them rolling into this week in an effort to capture shoppers who are spacing out purchases and comparing prices across multiple retailers.
At the same time, some categories are actually seeing leaner discounts. Analysis from Refinitiv’s Lipper Alpha shows that in beauty, for example, only about 4% of products were on promotion during Black Friday week, with minimal markdowns—far lower than last year—reflecting brands’ efforts to protect margins and maintain premium positioning.
Retailers are using more targeted promotions, personalized offers and app-only coupons, often powered by AI tools that mine shoppers’ past purchases and browsing behavior.
Electronics, clothing and toys remain at the heart of Black Friday in the U.S. Surveys ahead of the weekend show shoppers expecting the best deals on consumer electronics, fashion, toys, and home goods, with many also watching prices on small appliances and gaming consoles.
Statista data suggest that expectations for tech and fashion discounts are especially high this year, with a large share of consumers saying they are timing purchases of laptops, TVs, smartphones and winter wardrobes around Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions.
Gift cards are on track to be one of the season’s most popular items, as cash-strapped shoppers prioritize flexibility and let recipients choose their own deals later in the season.
Surveys show many Americans are leaning on technology to stretch their budgets. ICSC reports that shoppers increasingly use AI-driven tools and browser extensions to compare prices, track price drops and stack coupons, while logistics giant DHL finds that free delivery and easy returns are now make-or-break features for many online customers.
That has pushed retailers to highlight free shipping thresholds, curbside pickup and simplified returns in their Black Friday campaigns—often as prominently as the discounts themselves.
Consulting firm Bain estimates that roughly 9% of all U.S. holiday retail sales will fall between Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year, the highest share since it began tracking the period. It also expects sales over this stretch to grow around 11% year-over-year, outpacing overall holiday-season growth.
NRF and other trade groups forecast that total U.S. holiday sales in November and December will cross the $1 trillion mark for the first time, even as growth moderates compared with recent years.
But whether that translates into a blockbuster Black Friday depends on how far stretched shoppers decide they can go. Analysts describe a “Black Friday paradox”: more people out hunting for deals, but each one spending slightly less than in previous years.
Retailers will release early sales figures over the coming days, with NRF set to report final Thanksgiving-weekend numbers next week. Until then, today’s crowded parking lots and humming delivery warehouses suggest that, even in a cautious year, Black Friday still holds a powerful place in America’s shopping calendar.
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